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Doug1943

Tactical Exercise Number 01

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Hypothetical situation:  You are a military commander in a future war.  You are alerted to two important messages pending transmission via the quantum-termporal store-and-forward 4D node matrix.  For technical reasons, one message can be transmitted immediately. The second one will take up to two days to make its way to you. All you know is  that one message contains good news, the other, bad.  You can choose which message to get right away. The other will be delayed by up to two days.

 

Which do you choose, and why?


You can get a lot further in life with a kind word and a gun, than with a kind word alone.

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Right off, without considering anything else (like the date of time) I think I would go with the bad news. That way you can prepare or adjust accordingly. It's a tough question, though, because you don't know how important one is over the other.  The bad news might just be something trivial that while bad, isn't going to affect much in the long run. And the good news could turn out to be important. Like if Andrew Jackson had known the war was over before the Battle of New Orleans.

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Author of the topic Posted
16 hours ago, MiguelCepeda said:

I would choose the message with the most recent date/time/group (DTG) because it could supersede or update the previous. Good or bad, at least you'd be current.

Whoa ... hadn't thought of that.

Say they both have the same date of origin, same priority level. No other information about them is known.


You can get a lot further in life with a kind word and a gun, than with a kind word alone.

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16 hours ago, O sleeper said:

Right off, without considering anything else (like the date of time) I think I would go with the bad news. That way you can prepare or adjust accordingly. It's a tough question, though, because you don't know how important one is over the other.  The bad news might just be something trivial that while bad, isn't going to affect much in the long run. And the good news could turn out to be important. Like if Andrew Jackson had known the war was over before the Battle of New Orleans.

A very thoughtful answer.  Yes ... the bad news could be, "Christmas leave will be two days shorter than normal", and the good news could be, "You're being sent a full division of re-inforcements who will arrive by tomorrow night, so you don't have to abandon your positions and pull back."

So I should have said, they are both of roughly equal import.


You can get a lot further in life with a kind word and a gun, than with a kind word alone.

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Guest fooar69

"I've got some good news and bad news..."
"What's the good news?"
"You've got 24 hours to live."
"What's the bad news?"
"We knew this yesterday."

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1 hour ago, Doug1943 said:

A very thoughtful answer.  Yes ... the bad news could be, "Christmas leave will be two days shorter than normal", and the good news could be, "You're being sent a full division of re-inforcements who will arrive by tomorrow night, so you don't have to abandon your positions and pull back."

So I should have said, they are both of roughly equal import.

I still think I would go with the bad news first. That way I can prepare or adjust whatever I need to. The good news would only change things for the better, but bad news could be about a change for the worst, and I think I would rather prepare for that.

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Author of the topic Posted

There is a concept in Operations Research and similar areas, called "mini-maxing". It means trying to take the path of decision-consequence -decision etc that will result in the lowest loss when your opponent does everything right. You minimize your maximum loss.

 

I think that applies here -- with the qualifications that you and @MiguelCepeda pointed out were needed to make it more realistic -- that's what I would go with too.  Always get the bad news first.

Don't shun the bad news.

 

I think history, and especially military history, is full of examples of commanders who didn't want to hear the bad news.

 

Stalin had a magnificent espionage system, and had ample warning that the Nazis were going to break their pact with him and invade the USSR -- he ignored them all, helped by a slavish intelligence chief -- because he didn't want to believe it. As a result he lost millions of men and most of his airplanes West of the Urals. 

 

General MacArthur's Chief of Intelligence, Colonel Willoughby,  told MacArthur what he wanted to hear -- which was that the Chinese would not intervene if we drove the North Korean Army right tup to and over their border. So we did a repeat of our original flight down the peninsula when they did intervene.

 

Our radar picked up the Japanese airplanes approaching Pearl Harbor three quarters of an hour before they arrived over the target ... but the Officer of the Day dismissed them as incoming American planes which had, inexplicably, gotten way off course and were coming in from the opposite direction they were expected to arrive from (and, evidently, very early too). I suppose he feared dragging everyone out of bed, after a hard Saturday night, would be, if it was a false alarm, a great embarrassment to him. And maybe he had a commander who punished honest mistakes.  Too bad.

 

Most people don't want to hear the bad news. Professionals know that this is the news you must hear first.

 

The militia movement today is blithely unaware of the fact that it is on very thin legal ice, with respect to being a "private army", which the Supreme Court has ruled can be made illegal by a state if it wishes to. .

 

People who urge that we "arrest the governor and try him for treason" have never heard of the Smith Act.

 

Two men in Georgia are going to go to prison for a long time, because they thought they could carry out a "citizen's arrest" of someone for just casing the joint.

 

All the polls show the senile Joe Biden with a comfortable lead over Mr Trump, including in swing states Trump won last time. And this is despite the fact that BLM/AntiFa

and other Democratic supporters are trying to, literally, destroy the country.

 

"There is plenty of time for events to swing things the other way" and  "Polls are poor indicators of results, as witness last time" are valid responses to this bad news.  "Polls are all faked" is not.

 

I hope we win in November. (If we don't, I won't blame it on voter fraud.) 

 

And if we don't win, we have to carry on the struggle, under new and possibly unfavorable conditions, and wait for better times.

 

The retreat is the most difficult of all military maneuvers to accomplish. 

 

It will be even harder, if we have to make a retreat, if we have not thought about how to do it: how, for instance, to behave if they not only outlaw buying new semi-automatic rifles, but institute a compulsory buy-back campaign.  What to do if your state declares the militia a private army, and outlaws private armies.

 

We don't have to roll over and die in these circumstances. There are ways to carry on, and wait until the tide of public opinion turns.

 

 


You can get a lot further in life with a kind word and a gun, than with a kind word alone.

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8 hours ago, Doug1943 said:

Whoa ... hadn't thought of that.

Say they both have the same date of origin, same priority level. No other information about them is known.

LOL! If you would have known how data is sifted today, DTG and DOI are or prime importance. 

 

Bad news first. That is the news you have to recover from, usually hitting one or more of Mission Enemy Terrain and Time (MET-T) analysis.

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Author of the topic Posted
1 hour ago, MiguelCepeda said:

LOL! If you would have known how data is sifted today, DTG and DOI are or prime importance. 

 

Bad news first. That is the news you have to recover from, usually hitting one or more of Mission Enemy Terrain and Time (MET-T) analysis.

This is the kind of stuff, translated into the environment that the miliitia finds itself in, that we need to know.

I'm starting a thread on Fourth of July Militia vs AntiFa considerations, based on a Private Message exchange with someone who is going with his militia group to Mt Rushmore.

You will recognize that this is a civilian talking when I lay out what I think they should be thinking about ... and I would appreciate your comments.


You can get a lot further in life with a kind word and a gun, than with a kind word alone.

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