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Key Events In The Coming Week

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In the US, main releases include inflation, industrial production and confidence indicators. There also are a significant number of Fed speakers on schedule. In the Eurozone, beyond Thursday’s ECB meeting we also have inflation numbers and a possible rating action on Portugal by DBRS on Friday. In the UK, key release includes inflation numbers and labor data along with retail sales. Monday is also the deadline for the Judicial Review on Art. 50 triggering In Australia, we get RBA minutes and labor data while New Zealand comes out with inflation numbers. In China, the main data releases include Q3 GDP and September industrial production and retail sales. In Japan, beyond the possible revisions to the August industrial production we also have the industry activity index release for August. In Canada, focus is on the BoC meeting. We also get inflation and retail sales data.

 

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Broken down by day, this morning in Europe the only notable data due out is the final revision to September CPI in the Euro area. Over in the US this afternoon we’ll get the September industrial and manufacturing reports along with capacity utilization data and the Empire manufacturing report for October.

 

Tuesday morning should be an interesting session in Europe with the ECB bank lending survey due out along with the UK CPI/RPI/PPI data in September. Over in the US we’ll also get the September CPI report too, along with the October NAHB housing market index print.

 

Wednesday is all about China with the September data dump released in the morning which includes Q3 GDP, industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment. Away from that there’s more data due in the UK in the form of the August and September employment data, while in the US we’ll get the September housing starts and building permits numbers, along with the Fed’s Beige Book in the evening.

 

In Europe on Thursday the data includes Germany PPI and UK retail sales. That’s before we get the ECB policy meeting outcome shortly after midday. Over in the US on Thursday the data releases include initial jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing survey, existing home sales and Conference Board’s leading index.

 

We end the week in China on Friday with the latest property prices data and MNI business indicator reading. In the UK there’s more data, this time the latest public sector net borrowing reading, while the Euro area consumer confidence print is due in the afternoon. There’s no data due in the US on Friday.

 

* * *

 

Away from the data the Fedspeak this week includes Fischer this evening, Williams and Kaplan on Wednesday, Dudley on Thursday and finally Tarullo and Williams on Friday. Of course the third and final Presidential Debate on Wednesday evening in Las Vegas will be closely watched. In the UK Chancellor Hammond is due to testify before the Treasury Committee on Wednesday. The ECB’s Draghi holds his usual post-ECB meeting press conference on Thursday too. The other big focus for markets this week is of course earnings. 96 S&P 500 companies are set to report including BofA, Netflix and IBM today, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson and Intel on Tuesday, eBay and Morgan Stanley on Wednesday, American Airlines, Verizon, Microsoft, Walgreens Boots and Schlumberger on Thursday and McDonald’s and GE on Friday. We’ll also get earnings from 40 Stoxx 600 companies this week.

 

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Key event preview from BofA:

 

ECB

 

The ECB's hesitant communication since the September meeting, opening space for early tapering fears, has already triggered a tightening in monetary conditions. This, according to BofA, would actually lower core inflation forecasts for 2018. That is why we expect a dovish tone from Draghi, while action will likely have to wait until December 8. Our base case is that he will confirm that tapering "has not been discussed" and will emphasise as he did at the IMF press conference last weekend the ECB's intention to preserve the ECB's "necessary" and "very substantial" amount of monetary support. We also expect him to highlight that inflation has to return to target "without undue delay" - this is already in the prepared statement but should get more prominence - to allay concerns over the ECB's wobbling on the target. We also don't expect Draghi to elaborate much on instruments, because we think the Governing Council is not through its review of options. We still expect the ECB in December to prolong QE until September 2017 at the EUR80bn pace, tweaking the capital key.

 

Bank of Canada

 

We expect the Bank of Canada to stay on hold. Two of the BoC's key fears appear to be abating. First, recent housing measures should help cool the overheated market, slowing the growth rate of activity and prices. And concerns about weak growth are fading, with GDP growth in July of 0.5%, and a very large 67.2K increase in jobs in September. We expect the BoC to maintain a balanced but cautious tone, as the rotation to export-led growth remains challenged.

 

* * *

 

Finally, courtesy of Goldman, here is a detailed look at only the US:

 

Monday, October 17

 

08:30 AM Empire manufacturing survey, October (consensus +1.0, last -2.0); Consensus expects the Empire manufacturing survey to move out of contractionary levels after the index rose modestly in the September report.

 

09:15 AM Industrial production, September (GS -0.1%, consensus +0.2%, last -0.4%); Manufacturing production, September (GS -0.1%, consensus +0.1%, last -0.4%); Capacity utilization, September (GS 75.4%, consensus 75.6%, last 75.5%); We expect that industrial production softened by 0.1% (mom) in September after a 0.4% decline in August which was relatively broad-based.

 

12:15 PM Fed Vice Chair Fischer (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer will give a speech on the topic of low interest rates at the Economic Club of New York luncheon. Q&A will follow the speech. Last week, Vice Chair Fischer remarked that the decision to leave rates unchanged at the September FOMC meeting was “a close call,” adding that the Committee chose to wait for additional signs of progress on inflation and employment.

 

 

 

Tuesday, October 18

 

08:30 AM CPI (mom), September (GS +0.34%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.20%); Core CPI (mom), September (GS +0.15%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.25%); CPI (yoy), September (GS +1.5%, consensus +1.5%, last +1.1%); Core CPI (yoy), September (GS +2.3%, consensus +2.3%, last +2.3%): We expect that core CPI rose by 0.15% in September, following a 0.25% increase in July. On a year-on-year basis, core CPI likely rose by 2.3%. We estimate headline consumer prices increased by 0.34% last month, at a faster pace than in August. On a year-on-year basis, the headline index likely increased by 1.5%.

 

10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, October (consensus 63, last 65): The NAHB homebuilders’ index—which we have found to be a decent leading indicator of housing starts—rose to its highest level since mid-2015 last month. Consensus expects the index to edge down in October.

 

 

 

Wednesday, October 19

 

08:30 AM Housing starts, September (GS +1.5%, consensus +2.8%, last -5.8%); Building permits, September (consensus +1.1%, last +0.7%): We expect that housing starts rose by 1.5% in September, following a weaker-than-expected 5.8% decline in August that was about evenly split across single-family and multi-family units. Consensus expects new permits to rise 1.1% after a 0.7% gain in August. Overall, the pace of new housing starts and permit issuance is little changed over the past year, and both remain near post-crisis highs.

 

08:45 AM San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams will give the keynote address at a conference on improving diversity in the financial services industry hosted by the Global Interdependence Center at Rutgers University.

 

01:30 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan (FOMC non-voter) will take part in a moderated Q&A at the Mayor’s International Luncheon, sponsored by the Fort Worth Chamber of Commerce. Last week, President Kaplan, who will be a voting member on the FOMC in 2017, said that he would have supported a rate hike at the September FOMC meeting.

 

02:00 PM Beige Book, November FOMC meeting period: The Fed's Beige Book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The September Beige Book reported that while activity continued to expand across most districts, the pace of growth seemed to have slowed in a few districts since the July report. The September Beige Book additionally reported a modest uptick in manufacturing activity, continued labor market tightening and further upward pressure on wages. Consumer spending was little changed. In the November Beige Book, we will look for additional anecdotes related to wage growth as well as any improvement in the state of the domestic energy and manufacturing sectors.

 

07:45 PM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley will give a speech on the economic history of New York City at the Lotos Club in New York City. Last week, President Dudley said that he expects the Fed to raise rates relatively soon “if the economy continues to evolve along the path we expect.”

 

 

 

Thursday, October 20

 

08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended October 15 (GS 260k, consensus 250k, last 246k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended October 8 (last 2,046k): We expect initial jobless claims to increase to 260k after claims declined nationally to new lows last week, likely distorted by the effects of Hurricane Matthew.

 

08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, October (GS +7.5, consensus +6.0, last +12.8); We expect the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey to pull back a bit to 7.5 in October after the index rose by 10.8pt to 12.8 in September. Last month, the Philly Fed index signaled substantial improvement, although the report’s underlying components were more mixed.

 

08:30 AM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley will give opening remarks at a workshop hosted by the New York Fed titled, “Reforming Culture and Behavior in the Financial Services Industry: Expanding the Dialogue.” Following his opening remarks, President Dudley will moderate a panel on the topic, “Finance and Society: A Global Perspective.”

 

 

 

Friday, October 21

 

10:00 AM Existing home sales, September (consensus +0.4%, last -0.9%); Consensus expects existing home sales to increase 0.4% after a -0.9% decline in August. Existing home sales are an input into the brokers' commissions component of residential investment in the GDP report.

 

10:00 AM Leading indicators, August (consensus +0.2%, last -0.2%)

 

10:15 AM Fed Governor Tarullo (FOMC voter) speaks; Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo (FOMC voter) will give a speech titled, “Pedagogy and Scholarship in a Post-Crisis World” at the Columbia Law School Conference on the New Pedagogy of Financial Regulation.

 

02:30 PM San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams will deliver the keynote address at the Federal Home Loan Bank’s 2016 member conference in San Francisco, California. Audience and media Q&A is expected.

 

Source: BofA, DB, GS

 

 

 

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