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Empire Fed's Dead-Cat-Bounce Dies As New Orders, Labor Remain Weak

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Following September's mixed bag of disappointing regional Fed surveys, October has started off poorly with a big miss for Empire Fed (-6.8 vs +1.0 exp). June's dead cat bounce is officially over with the index sliding to 5 month lows led by continued deterioration in New Orders and workweek. Hope rose modestlywith new orders expected to pick up.

 

Unequivocally not great...

 

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As the Empire Fed warns the labor market remains weak...

 

After reaching their lowest levels of the year last month, both labor market indexes rose, but remained negative. The employment index increased ten points to -4.7 and the average workweek index edged up one point to -10.4, indicating that employment counts and hours worked continued to decline. The prices paid index increased six points to 22.6, suggesting that input prices continued to rise at a moderate pace, and the prices received index increased three points to 4.7, pointing to a slight upturn in selling prices.

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