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Key Events In The Coming Week

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Looking at the week ahead, the US election enters the home stretch and politics will likely dominate the headlines, especially the closer races in Congress. Despite data being overshadowed by politics, there are some key US releases coming up, with the first estimate of Q3 GDP, the employment cost index and durable goods the main focus.

 

Some of the key global events in the coming week:

 

  • In the US, we have a busy calendar, with a first look at Q3 GDP, durable goods, trade balance, housing data, the employment cost index and final Michigan sentiment survey. We also hear from several Fed speakers at the start of the week before the blackout period begins on Tuesday.
  • In the Eurozone, we get PMIs and money supply as well as German inflation numbers and IFO. We also hear from several ECB members throughout the week, including President Draghi.
  • In the UK we get the advance release of Q3 GDP, and the S&P rating decision at the end of the week. BoE Governor Carney will also be questioned by the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee on the economic consequences of the vote to leave the EU and the BoE’s response
  • In Australia, the focus in the week ahead will be the inflation release, with increased weight put on the outcome given the recent weak run of employment data. A quiet calendar for New Zealand, with trade balance the only release of note.
  • In Japan, the main focus will be the inflation print, though we also see employment data.

 

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Here is the daily breakdown:

 

It’s a busy start to the week today with the release of the flash October PMI’s this morning in Europe including the services, manufacturing and composite prints. In the UK we’ll also get the October CBI selling prices data. Over in the US this afternoon we’ll also get the flash manufacturing PMI, along with the Chicago Fed national activity index.

 

Kicking off Tuesday will be France where the latest confidence indicators will be released. Over in Germany we’ll also get the October IFO index readings. Across the pond in the US on Tuesday the highlight is the October consumer confidence reading, while the Richmond Fed manufacturing survey, IBD/TIPP economic optimism print, FHFA house prince index and S&P/Case-Shiller house price index will also be released.

 

Wednesday starts in Asia where we’ll get the latest consumer sentiment reading in China. In Europe consumer confidence readings are expected in Germany and France while it’s a busy session scheduled in the US on Wednesday with the remaining flash PMI’s (services and composite), wholesale inventories, advance goods trade balance and new home sales. We’re in Asia again on Thursday with the latest industrial profits data in China. In Europe we’ll get M3 money supply data for the Euro area, along with the advance Q3 GDP report for the UK.

 

The important data in the US on Thursday is the September durable and capital goods orders data. Also due out will be initial jobless claims, pending home sales and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

 

We end the week on Friday in Japan with the September CPI report and also the latest household spending and jobless rate data. During the European session we’ll get CPI reports for both France and Germany, along with the advanced Q3 GDP reading for the former. Euro area confidence indicators will also be released. In the US it’ll be all about the advance Q3 GDP report, while the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading for October is also due.

 

A snapshot of just the US events alongside expectations courtesy of BofA:

 

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And the detailed breakdown of US events, courtesy of Goldman:

 

Monday, October 24

 

  • 09:00 AM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President William Dudley will deliver opening remarks at the second annual conference on the Evolving Structure of the U.S. Treasury Market at the New York Fed. Last week, President Dudley said he does not see an “urgency to tighten monetary policy aggressively”.
  • 09:05 AM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will give a speech on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at the Association for University Business and Economic Research’s fall research conference in Fayetteville, Arkansas.
  • 09:45 AM Markit Flash US Manufacturing PMI, October preliminary (consensus 51.5, last 51.5): Details from the Philly Fed and Empire State surveys showed mixed signals in October, following mostly stronger reports from regional manufacturing surveys in September. We find that the flash Markit PMI does contain some predictive power for the ISM.
  • 01:30 PM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will hold a discussion on current economic conditions and monetary policy at an event held by the Civic Affairs Society of the University Club of Chicago. Q&A is expected.
  • 02:00 PM Fed Governor Powell (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Governor Jerome Powell will give a moderate a discussion on “The Future of Treasury Market Settlement” at the New York Fed conference on the Evolving Structure of the U.S. Treasury Market. Q&A is expected.

 

Tuesday, October 25

 

  • 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, August (consensus +0.4%, last +0.5%): Consensus expects a 0.4% gain in the FHFA house price index in August, which has risen 5.8% over the past year. FHFA home prices increased 0.5% in July, a quicker pace than expected. The FHFA house price index has a wider geographic coverage than the S&P/Case-Shiller housing price index, but is based only on properties financed with conforming mortgages.
  • 09:00 AM S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, August (consensus +0.1%, last flat): The Case-Shiller home price index appears to have been influenced by seasonal adjustment challenges recently. Consensus expects a 0.1% increase after the index was little changed in July. Over the past year, the 20-city index has increased by 5.0%.
  • 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, October (GS 100.8, consensus 101.0, last 104.1): We expect consumer confidence to edge down in October after the index rose to a post-crisis high in September. The University of Michigan’s preliminary estimate of consumer sentiment for October declined unexpectedly, but we expect the final estimate to move higher in the report this week.
  • 10:00 AM Richmond Fed manufacturing index, October (consensus -4, last -8)
  • 01:20 PM Atlanta Fed President Lockhart (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Lockhart will deliver a speech on the topic of “Lending and Investing in Community Development” at a conference held by the Opportunity Finance Network in Atlanta, Georgia.

 

Wednesday, October 26

 

  • 08:30 AM Advanced goods trade balance, September (GS -$60.2bn, consensus -$60.8bn, last -$59.2bn): U.S. Census Bureau Report on Advance Economic Indicators; Last month, the Census Bureau’s Advance Economic Indicators report showed a smaller than anticipated trade deficit, offset by softer inventory accumulation. We expect the goods trade deficit to widen slightly in September.
  • 08:30 AM Wholesale inventories, September preliminary (consensus +0.1%, last -0.2%)
  • 09:45 AM Markit Flash US Services PMI, September preliminary (consensus 52.3, last 52.3)
  • 10:00 AM New home sales, September (GS -2.5%, consensus -1.5%, last -7.6%): We expect new home sales to decline by 2.5% in September, after a 7.6% decline in August that only partially reversed outsized gains in July. New home sales are highly volatile on a month-to-month basis. Single-family housing starts rose, while multi-family housing starts weakened substantially in the September report. Building permits rose by more than expected, driven largely by an increase in the multi-family category.

 

Thursday, October 27

 

  • 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, September (GS flat, consensus +0.1%, last +0.1%): Durable goods orders ex-transportation, September (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.2%, last -0.2%); Core capital goods orders, September (GS -0.3%, consensus -0.1%, last +0.9%); Core capital goods shipments, September (GS +0.1, consensus +0.4%, last -0.1%): We expect durable goods orders to be flat and core capital goods orders to increase 0.1% in September, following a mixed report in August. September industrial production data came in a bit below consensus expectations, while regional manufacturing surveys improved across the board. We also expect core capital goods shipments to increase 0.1%. Over the last year, core capital goods orders declined by 2.8%, while core capital goods shipments declined by 5.9%.
  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended October 22 (GS 260k, consensus 255k, last 260k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended October 15 (last 2,057k); We expect initial jobless claims to remain at 260k. Last week, claims increased from very low levels, likely partially reflecting the effects of Hurricane Matthew and a spike in claims in Kentucky.
  • 10:00 AM Pending home sales, September (consensus +1.1, last -2.4%): Consensus expects pending home sales to move up in September after a 2.4% decline in August. We have found pending home sales—based on contract signings rather than closings—to be a decent leading indicator of existing home sales with a one- to two-month lag.
  • 11:00 AM Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, October (consensus +3, last +6)

 

Friday, October 28

 

  • 08:30 AM Employment cost index, Q3 (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.6%, last +0.6%): We expect the ECI to hold steady at 0.6% in Q3, or up 2.6% (from 2.5% in Q2) on a year-over-year basis. Our Q3 wage tracker—a weighted average of the ECI, average hourly earnings, nonfarm compensation per hour, and the Atlanta Fed's wage growth tracker—stands at 2.6%.
  • 08:30 AM GDP (advance), Q3 (GS +2.7%, consensus +2.6%, last +1.4%): Personal consumption, Q3 (GS +2.4%, consensus +2.6%, last +4.3%): We expect that Q3 GDP rose at a pace of 2.7% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), up from our preliminary tracking estimate of 2.5%. We expect a moderate boost from inventories after a 1.2pp drag last quarter. Consumer spending growth is likely to soften modestly following a very strong Q2. According to our estimates, PCE is tracking +2.4% (qoq ar) in Q3.
  • 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment (final), October (GS 88.3, consensus 88.2, last 87.9): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment gauge to climb to 88.3 in the final October report, after the index unexpectedly declined to 87.9 in the preliminary report.

 

Source: BofA, DB, GS

 

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