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Caterpillar Retail Sales Decline For 46 Consecutive Months; Worst Month For North America...

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While Caterpillar's CEO may have resigned recently, the woes at the heavy industrial manufacturer continue, with yet another month of declining global sales, the company's 46th in a row.

 

According to the latest monthly release of global retail sales which traditionally presages the company's earnings release due out tomorrow, the company reported that North American sales dipped by 23%, the steepest monthly decline since February 2010, confirming recent speculation that demand for original equipment is simply not there. The rest of the world did not fare much better, with EAME down 17%, Latin America sliding 23% and only Asia posting a rare rebound in sales, up 3%, the best print in the series since October 2012.

 

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But it is on a blended global basis, that the ongoing problems facing CAT emerge where we can see that the company has now not reported a single monthly uptick in sales for 46 consecutive months, a period which is now 2.5x longer than the far more acute 19 month drop observed during the post-financial crisis period.

 

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Below is a quick thought on CAT's latest performance from Axiom's Gordon Johnson:

 

QUICK THOUGHT: Sentiment aside (which is at/near an all-time high for CAT on the idea that earnings are bottoming), things are getting worse. And, with mining CAPEX across all CAT’s key segments above the 5-10yr trend line, we feel, as we have published previously (see attached note), things are still bottoming vs. the popular view that they have already bottomed. We think this becomes clearer as we move through 2017.

 

His note is below

 

 

 

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