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Fistfuls Of Dollars And The Good (Bitcoin), Bad (Bonds), & Ugly (Semis) Markets

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Take your pick - Good, Bad, or Ugly...


  • The Dollar's best week in over 4 months

  • Silver's best week in 4 months

  • Bitcoin's best 2-week gain in 4 months

Not Good:

  • 30Y Bond's worst week in 3 months

  • 10Y highest yield close since Dec 2013

  • Semi stocks worst week in a month

  • Techs worst weekly underperformance relative to Banks in over 3 months

  • Gold's worst week relative to silver since Sept 2016

How about next week? Do you feel lucky?

Odd week, all in all - major reversal midweek in many momentum strategies.

Big shift in momentum midweek, left Dow, S&P and Nasdaq unchanged on the week, Trannies outperformed...



S&P closed below its 50- and 100DMA...



The Dow, S&P, and Trannies all tumbled back into the red for 2018 today; only Nasdaq (green) and Small Caps (dark red) remain green for the year...



Growth was favored early in the week but rejected for value after Wednesday's open...



Tech was the early week leader over banks.. but then XTE's ban and Taiwan Semi's warning spoiled the party...



Since The Fed hiked rates in March, stocks notably underperformed bonds into the end of March - then stocks outperformed bonds since April began... until the last couple of days...



Mixed bag for the FANGMAN stocks...



Mixed picture for banks too... MS leading, GS lagging...



Ugly week for HY bonds - HYG tagged its 100DMA and rolled over...



Bonds and Stocks recoupled after two weeks of trying... (green - buy both, red - sell both, orange - buy stocks, sell bonds)


3rd day in a row of negative aggregate returns for a stock and bond portfolio...



Treasury yields ended notably higher on the week, reversing dramatically midweek...



Real Yields and Breakevens surged...but breakevens dumped and pumped today...



10Y Yields tested 2.9500% for the first time since 2/21 (when stocks got spooked) and closed at the highest yield since Dec 2013...


The yield curve also reversed course midweek after flattening to fresh cycle lows, it ripped steeper from Wednesday's European close... (2s10s jumped 8bps to 49bps off the lows, and 2s30s +10bps off the lows to 68bps)



Which comes first - geopolitical-crisis-driven oil-price spikes... or inflation expectations...



The Dollar Index surged this week back to its highest level since The Fed hiked rates in March...



With the world and their pet rabbit short the Dollar...


This could end badly...



Cryptos had a great week... again... as maybe the Tax-selling-pressure thesis is being proved out...



But perhaps most notable was Ethereum's dramatic outperformance of Bitcoin as 'risk-on' trades return...



On the week, despite USD strength, Silver was the winner with Copper and Crude gaining but Gold ended the week red...



WTI topped $69, and RBOB topped $2.00..



This was silver's biggest week relative to gold since Sept 2016... (early indications are that the record net short silver position has started to liquidate)



Finally we note that hard and soft data continues to tumble...



The SMART money is still leaving...



Bonus Chart: Why the sudden reversal midweek? Simple - The HKMA had to start buying Hongkers to protect the peg and started selling everything else!!



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