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Fistfuls Of Dollars And The Good (Bitcoin), Bad (Bonds), & Ugly (Semis) Markets

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Take your pick - Good, Bad, or Ugly...

Good:

  • The Dollar's best week in over 4 months

  • Silver's best week in 4 months

  • Bitcoin's best 2-week gain in 4 months

Not Good:

  • 30Y Bond's worst week in 3 months

  • 10Y highest yield close since Dec 2013

  • Semi stocks worst week in a month

  • Techs worst weekly underperformance relative to Banks in over 3 months

  • Gold's worst week relative to silver since Sept 2016

How about next week? Do you feel lucky?

Odd week, all in all - major reversal midweek in many momentum strategies.

Big shift in momentum midweek, left Dow, S&P and Nasdaq unchanged on the week, Trannies outperformed...

2018-04-20_13-00-58_0.jpg

 

S&P closed below its 50- and 100DMA...

2018-04-20_13-04-28.jpg

 

The Dow, S&P, and Trannies all tumbled back into the red for 2018 today; only Nasdaq (green) and Small Caps (dark red) remain green for the year...

2018-04-20_12-22-11.jpg

 

Growth was favored early in the week but rejected for value after Wednesday's open...

2018-04-20_12-52-00.jpg

 

Tech was the early week leader over banks.. but then XTE's ban and Taiwan Semi's warning spoiled the party...

2018-04-20_11-50-22.jpg

 

Since The Fed hiked rates in March, stocks notably underperformed bonds into the end of March - then stocks outperformed bonds since April began... until the last couple of days...

2018-04-20_11-56-43.jpg

 

Mixed bag for the FANGMAN stocks...

2018-04-20_12-34-30.jpg

 

Mixed picture for banks too... MS leading, GS lagging...

2018-04-20_12-41-12.jpg

 

Ugly week for HY bonds - HYG tagged its 100DMA and rolled over...

2018-04-20_13-02-59.jpg

 

Bonds and Stocks recoupled after two weeks of trying... (green - buy both, red - sell both, orange - buy stocks, sell bonds)

2018-04-20_12-13-58.jpg

3rd day in a row of negative aggregate returns for a stock and bond portfolio...

2018-04-20_12-49-48.jpg

 

Treasury yields ended notably higher on the week, reversing dramatically midweek...

2018-04-20_12-23-53.jpg

 

Real Yields and Breakevens surged...but breakevens dumped and pumped today...

2018-04-20_12-32-03.jpg

 

10Y Yields tested 2.9500% for the first time since 2/21 (when stocks got spooked) and closed at the highest yield since Dec 2013...

2018-04-20_12-19-00.jpg

The yield curve also reversed course midweek after flattening to fresh cycle lows, it ripped steeper from Wednesday's European close... (2s10s jumped 8bps to 49bps off the lows, and 2s30s +10bps off the lows to 68bps)

2018-04-20_12-09-44.jpg

 

Which comes first - geopolitical-crisis-driven oil-price spikes... or inflation expectations...

2018-04-20_13-07-21.jpg

 

The Dollar Index surged this week back to its highest level since The Fed hiked rates in March...

2018-04-20_12-25-19.jpg

 

With the world and their pet rabbit short the Dollar...

2018-04-20_6-54-35_0.jpg

This could end badly...

2018-04-20_7-16-16.jpg

 

Cryptos had a great week... again... as maybe the Tax-selling-pressure thesis is being proved out...

2018-04-20_12-42-40.jpg

 

But perhaps most notable was Ethereum's dramatic outperformance of Bitcoin as 'risk-on' trades return...

2018-04-20_11-53-39.jpg

 

On the week, despite USD strength, Silver was the winner with Copper and Crude gaining but Gold ended the week red...

2018-04-20_12-03-03.jpg

 

WTI topped $69, and RBOB topped $2.00..

2018-04-20_12-44-12.jpg

 

This was silver's biggest week relative to gold since Sept 2016... (early indications are that the record net short silver position has started to liquidate)

2018-04-20_12-05-21.jpg

 

Finally we note that hard and soft data continues to tumble...

2018-04-20_12-47-48.jpg

 

The SMART money is still leaving...

2018-04-20_12-54-33.jpg

 

Bonus Chart: Why the sudden reversal midweek? Simple - The HKMA had to start buying Hongkers to protect the peg and started selling everything else!!

2018-04-20_12-57-34.jpg

Gls0WAHKTbo

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